![]() ![]() ![]() In short, the papers aim at several objectives: meticulous and incisive professional analysis, timeliness and relevance to current issues, and lucid presentation. Nevertheless, in all the articles and reports, the reasoning and the conclusions are developed in a form intelligible to the interested, informed nonspecialist as well as useful to the expert in macroeconomics. Such issues are typically quantitative, and the research findings are often statistical. Particular attention is devoted to recent and current economic developments that are directly relevant to the contemporary scene or especially challenging because they stretch our understanding of economic theory or previous empirical findings. The expertise of the panel is concentrated on the "live" issues of economic performance that confront the maker of public policy and the executive in the private sector. Powell made a presentation in a press briefing about the Fed’s determination to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched and put the probability of a recession within the next year not particularly elevated.The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity contains the articles, reports, and highlights of the discussion from conferences of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. As companies find it hard to fill those, the rate of unemployment has been keeping wages firm.Įarlier this year, before inflation had climbed as high, Fed officials mapped out their expectations for raising its key interest rate past the estimated neutral level - where it assures stable prices and full employment over the long run - without causing a recession, sparking off expectations that the US central bank was confident of everything turning out just right, as the porridge did for Goldilocks in the popular children’s tale. The US has far more job openings than number of applicants for the vacancies. US inflation has been up at a four-decade high, and there are lingering supply-side constraints from the pandemic lockdowns, including in China, and the war in Europe. How optimistic is it to expect inflation will be controlled without requiring a recession? In other words, how optimistic is it to dream of a glide to a Goldilocks economy? It’s going to be difficult. In other words, the hope is that in its war on four-decade high inflation, the Fed will slow down the US economy gently without letting it tank. In this perfect state, steady economic growth prevents a recession however, growth is not so hot as to stoke inflation. What they refer to is an economy that’s not too hot and not too cold but just right. In this context, commentators are expressing the hope that the Fed can still pull off a return to “Goldilocks". But most importantly, all this will be accomplished without having the US economy in recession, or a material rise in unemployment. This, in turn, would nudge wages down, resulting in lower and stable inflation. ![]() When Powell says that soft or softish landing is what the Fed is hoping for, although it can’t guarantee it, he means to say that demand in the US would be cooled off and brought closer to supply. Meanwhile, Powell has cautioned that the Fed is unlikely to blink until the historically-high US inflation, controlling which US President Joe Biden has said is the top economic priority, is brought under control. The global markets and economy discourse has both the narratives running in parallel. Investors around the world are weighing the odds of the US tipping into a recession, triggering, in the worst-case scenario, a full-blown global recession, against the hope that the Fed’s belated attempts, more aggressive than earlier expected, to clamp down on high US inflation will after all result in a soft-or at least softish, a word Fed Chief Jerome Powell used-landing. ![]()
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